Discussing Key Findings: 2022 National Coffee Data Trends Report
In April 2021, we announced an exciting collaboration with the National Coffee Association (NCA) USA to support the expansion of their long-running National Coffee Data Trends (NCDT) report.
Available to its members as well as for non-member purchase, the NCDT has historically been one of the most comprehensive (and longest-running) market reports on coffee consumer behavior and sentiment in the United States, employing an intentional methodology of nation-wide polling.
Amid the excitement of returning to Re:co Symposium and Specialty Coffee Expo, the National Coffee Association USA released the 2022 NCDT Specialty Coffee Report. JENN RUGOLO and PETER GIULIANO share some of the key findings of the report that were integrated into this year’s Re:co Symposium and look ahead to future iterations.
One of the reasons we were so excited to collaborate with the NCA on this project was to help it move from an annual polling, typically conducted in January, to a biannual event (adding a second poll in July) to track the increasing importance of cold brew’s growing market segment. But our biggest excitement around the project came from the opportunity to activate what we understood to be a key lever in our core mission—to make specialty coffee an equitable, thriving, and sustainable activity for the entire chain—by enabling equitable information sharing (access) in the specialty coffee market. (We identified these five levers in a Price Crisis Response Initiative Summary of Work, published in December 2019, and have since integrated them into the SCA’s sustainable coffee agenda.) As a result, it was agreed that the collaboration would produce a special (and free-to-access) report on data relating to specialty coffee: the NCDT Specialty Coffee Consumers & Trends report.
The initial report, published in May 2021, incorporated some key elements of our as-then-yet-unreleased attributes-based definition of specialty coffee, adding some terms to the “claims” section of the report (extrinsic attributes), using “specialty” instead of “gourmet,” and adding a question on flavors (intrinsic attributes). The first report suggested that specialty coffee drinkers were set to play a huge role in helping the post-pandemic recovery of retail coffee, as four in ten American adults who drink specialty coffee each day were less satisfied with drinking coffee at home during the pandemic.
The 2022 NCDT Specialty Coffee Report suggests that the consumption of specialty coffee grew in 2022, with significant increases in compared to July 2021, and the highest past-day levels observed in the NCDT’s tracking since the report’s inception in 1950. Additionally, specialty coffee beverages represent 62% of all cups consumed in the past-day, rising from 56% observed in January 2021, suggesting that, despite rising inflation, specialty coffee continues to be a valued product and/or experience for Americans. The report also highlights, however, the growing tension between the desire for a specialty coffee experience and rising costs: while the 2022 report tracked a rise in specialty drinkers brewing at home more than before (70% of specialty coffee drinkers agree that “drinking coffee at home allows them to save money while not giving up an enjoyable experience”), opinion is split as to whether or not making coffee at home is or is not the same or better than their out-of-home coffee experience.
Of particular interest to the specialty coffee community is the page titled “Impact of Coffee Claims on Purchase Intent” (p63). This part of the report tests those pieces of information we call “extrinsic attributes” in specialty coffee. Topping the list as most important to consumers is the statement, “roast level is specified,” a consistent reminder that coffee consumers are aware that roast level and flavor are closely linked. But the next four on the list are especially striking, particularly as statements linked to less tangible external attributes: fair prices paid to the farmer, good labor practices, thriving communities, environmental sustainability, and support for coffee communities. This confirms something we’ve known in specialty for a long time—ethical considerations are really important to coffee consumers, and they value knowing that their coffee is produced sustainably. This finding supports a growing body of evidence that consumers have a strong focus on sustainability when making coffee purchase decisions. [1]
Another notable statistic comes from p62, “Taste Perceptions of Coffees Produced by Countries.” This table shows consumer responses to various coffee producing countries, and their reputation for producing coffee consumers think “tastes good.” What strikes us most about these responses is how positive the perceptions of each of these countries are: between one-third and two-thirds of the responding consumers believe that at least one country (and certainly more!) on the list produces coffee that “tastes very good.” If you look further into the full NCDT report, you’ll find the news is even better—almost all consumers have a generally positive view of all the coffee-producing countries mentioned. This suggests that a producing country name on a package itself suggests quality to consumers. Colombia’s role at the top of the list certainly suggests the large national investment that country has made in name recognition has paid off.
While all these data and trend tracking in the NCDT Specialty Coffee Report (as well as the full, extensive NCDT offered by the NCA!) is incredibly valuable and insightful information, it’s best used with some additional context: namely, that these results predominately offer us a look at “declared” (or “stated”), rather than “revealed,” preferences and behaviors. In this case, although the NCDT’s methodology asks consumers questions about their past behavior—which may feel like we’re getting respondents to “reveal” their preferences during the survey—we’re still depending on them to be reliable narrators of their own experience. It’s not so much that respondents are looking to confuse surveyors, but rather we often have a poor understanding of the complex math we perform when we’re at the point of purchase when navigating all our needs and wants. For example, when asked, a consumer may indicate that they value a sustainability attribute highly enough to be willing to pay more for it, but when faced with mounting inflation and a budget to balance, the same consumer may choose to be led by price (i.e., a less expensive product) rather than sustainability.
In a 2018 metanalysis of academic literature on coffee consumption and purchasing behavior, Antonella Samoggia and Bettina Riedel identified multiple reasons for coffee consumption (“functional,” “sensory (taste and smell),” “health belief,” “habit, tradition, and culture,” and “connoisseurship”) that are navigated across a variety of contexts of consumptions as well as socio-demographic factors. [2] This makes it incredibly difficult for us to predict what a single consumer will value at the moment of purchase, let alone an entire consuming market. The only way for us to try and understand consumers revealed preferences—i.e., what they choose to purchase in the moment—is through reports of purchasing behavior, like our previous work with the Square in producing the Square Coffee Reports or through large-scale market trend reporting by companies like Euromonitor. It is at the intersection of these two kinds of market reports that we get a clearer understanding of the attributes different consuming markets are likely to value more than others.
In the next iteration of the NCDT Specialty Coffee Report, expected April 2023, we’re curious to understand if the impact of inflation on coffee prices for consumers will impact their stated preference for sustainability attributes over price attributes, or if they will both continue to grow in importance. We’re also particularly interested in beginning to understand if there are certain flavor attributes preferred by different demographics and whether or not these stay the same or change over time.
We’re very excited about this ongoing collaboration and look forward to sharing future iterations of the NCDT Specialty Coffee Report—and its key insights!—with you in years to come. If you haven’t already, we’d encourage you to dive into not only this year’s specialty trends report, but to explore the full NCDT, which is now released biannually, particularly if your business operates within the US.
JENN RUGOLO is the Editor of 25, a biannual publication of the SCA. PETER GIULIANO is the SCA’s Chief Research Officer and Executive Director of the Coffee Science Foundation.
Explore these insights and many more in the National Coffee Data Trends: 2022 Specialty Coffee Breakout Report.
Notes & References
[1] Samoggia, A. & Riedel B. “Coffee Consumption and Purchasing Behavior Review: Insights for Further Research.” Appetite (2018), doi: 10.1016/j.appet.2018.07.002.
[2] Samoggia, A. & Riedel B. “Coffee Consumption and Purchasing Behavior Review: Insights for Further Research.” Appetite (2018), doi: 10.1016/j.appet.2018.07.002.